Tuesday, 28 August 2018

Fast-Expanding Exponential Cost Reductions

This article describes a new concept for creating and implementing 96 percent cost reductions: fast-expanding exponential solutions. This is a subject I'm very excited about, and I hope you will share my enthusiasm for and interest in this process.

When I was a youngster, controlled atomic chain reactions were being developed as a source of electricity. To help children understand the difference between an atomic blast (an uncontrolled atomic chain reaction) and an atomic power plant (a controlled atomic chain reaction), scientists designed impressive demonstrations.

One of my favorite demonstrations of an uncontrolled atomic chain reaction was conducted in a huge room filled with spring-loaded mouse traps that were each topped by two table-tennis balls. The narrator would start the demonstration by tossing a single-table tennis ball into the room, and within a second the air would be so filled with flying table-tennis balls that you couldn't see more than a few feet ahead. Within just a few more seconds, the energy in the traps would be expended and quiet would soon return.

To me that demonstration was very powerful because it showed that you could move from no motion to universal motion almost instantly. Although I had no interest in setting off uncontrolled atomic chain reactions, I was impressed by the potential to stir actions that would create immediate, multiplied effects. Since then, I always wondered how such effects might be encouraged for people.

I began to see examples early in life. If someone stood up on the top level of a stadium, perhaps one or two people in the vicinity would also stand up, but no other action would usually follow. If by standing up the person at top could reach a ventilation duct that created a loud noise when struck by hand, that person could induce a much larger reaction by starting a rhythmic drumming on the duct and shouting a familiar chant. Following such a beginning, the whole stadium would soon be clapping and chanting to the beat. Occasionally, I played this role of starting the drumming and chanting just to help me understand the cause and effect.

I observed a similar phenomenon a few years later: If a person stood up in the first row of a stadium or auditorium in a way that blocked the view for the people behind the standing person, most of the people who couldn't easily see would stand up immediately rather than ask the first person to sit down. Each time one person stood up in front, four to ten people behind that person would also stand. Each of those standers, in turn, led another multiple of four to ten people to stand. Within a minute or two, most people behind the original stander in that part of the stadium would be on their feet. Some people would stay standing, even if those in front sat down. Seeing that others were standing, some people in other sections would also stand either in excitement or to stretch. Whenever such reactions followed among many of those on the bottom tier, almost the whole crowd would be standing during much of the event.

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